Predicting the future of forest trees: how genes reveal risks in a changing climate
Key messages
- Genomic offset predictions, which estimate the genetic changes required for populations to adapt to future climates, vary widely depending on the estimation method in maritime pine.
- Higher offsets tend to signal increased tree mortality but the relationship with growth traits like height is less consistent.
- To confidently use genomic offset as a conservation tool, rigorous, multi-source validation is needed before application.
In our new study, we embarked on a journey to discover how maritime pine trees might adapt to climate change by investigating their genetic makeup. We analysed over 9,800 genetic markers in 454 trees across 34 populations to assess how much genetic change these populations would need to remain adapted in future climates.
Our research used ‘genetic offset’ models, which produced significantly different predictions based on the methods, genetic marker sets, and climate models employed. We found that higher genomic offsets were linked to increase tree mortality for some combinations of methods and genetic marker sets. However, the relationship with tree height was less clear. Even well-performing models provided inconsistent predictions by population.
We caution that these models, despite their potential, need more rigorous validation using data from experiments or field plots. We also call for a stronger theoretical framework to interpret genomic offset predictions.
The insights provided in this study are crucial for guiding conservation strategies that rely on genomics to face the increasingly unpredictable climate threats.
